We can always make mistakes and it doesn’t matter how much money we win during the game we’ve been playing, how many chips we have, or how good we think we are. One of the biggest mistakes is getting stuck in something called the gambler’s fallacy, which is often what keeps players out of online casinos. First, let’s find out what this is and how to avoid falling into the trap.
What is the gambler’s fallacy?
Many people, whether playing at a live casino or even in their everyday lives, have likely encountered the gambler’s fallacy. This concept is basically based on the belief that a simple random event is less or more likely to happen after an event or series of events. Basically, this fallacy is entirely based on the premise that something will happen if it hasn’t happened in a while.
The origins of this fallacy
The origins of this fallacy are not actually known, but it was first proposed by Amos Tversky, who was a mathematical psychologist, and also Daniel Kahneman, who was a psychologist. By analyzing cognitive behaviors, such as a player’s psychology, they were both able to attribute the player’s fallacy to the mistaken belief that gambling was fair that would somehow correct itself in the event of a winning or losing streak.
Example of this fallacy
The greatest example of the gambler’s fallacy in action is examining it in relation to the toss of a coin. The probability that a coin toss will land heads or tails is 1: 1. So if you flip a coin 20 times and each time it lands tails up, under the gambler’s fallacy, you would predict that it is likely that the next throw throw heads.
Regardless of the number of times the coin has turned tails, the probability that it will come up heads or tails the next one is still 50%. Previous releases have no real meaning for future ones.
If this fallacy applies to roulette, you can see how easy it is to get sucked into it. Because in this game the chances of the ball landing on red are 50%. So if the ball landed on red after 10 consecutive spins, under this fallacy you would assume that on the next spin it would land on black. However, the probability is still 50% for both colors.
The Monte Carlo Casino Incident
The Monte Carlo casino incident is one of the most popular examples of the gambler’s fallacy. During a game of roulette in 1913, the ball landed on black 26 times in a row. This was definitely somewhat unlikely, but it did happen and the players at the time assumed the player’s fallacy and bet millions against Black, with the reasoning that the streak would end and Red would win next time. But it did not. The black man won again and everyone lost their money.
Player Fallacy and Betting Strategies
Despite being hated by everyone, the gambler’s fallacy is used in some betting strategies for some games, mainly negative progressive systems. The Martingale system is the most popular, where you will double your money bet when you lose so that you can get back what you lost. This strategy is mainly used in roulette.